Jam tomorrow?
February 1st 2009 Geoff Dossetter says that 2009 will require transport operators to keep their nerve and trust that things will eventually turn around
As 2009 gets under way the economic news seems bleaker by the day. Retail chains closing down, forecasts of unemployment at three million, the pound going through the floor, and a dreadful feeling that things are going to get considerably worse before they get better.
My last column for HSS suggested that the silver lining for the transport industry was that ‘if you’ve got it then it’s been on the back of a truck’. Very true. But if you’ve been hauling for one of those now defunct retail chains...
The other day a transport manager from a medium size haulier told me that with almost 100 per cent of his business engaged in food distribution he had, so far, seen no impact of the downturn and that he did not anticipate any problem. ‘People will always need to eat’ he said. Fair enough. However, they also need to wear clothes and the fashion business has been one of the victims of the high street crash. But not all the news is bad.
The price of diesel has reduced from the crazy heights of last summer down to a more manageable level. A bulk price of 80p per litre is rather better than the 107ppl we saw in July. As a percentage of lorry operating costs fuel now represents around 32 per cent – down from almost 40 per cent.
Thinking of buying new vehicles? Now is the hour. Prices are down and availability is up. Leading manufacturers with 18-month waiting lists not long ago can now provide a new truck ‘tomorrow afternoon’ if you want it. A bit like the stock market itself, the only issue is to be sure that you are buying at the very bottom and that there will not be further falls.
Managing drivers will cause some problems this year. There will be the inevitable disappointments of either letting staff go or freezing pay. And 2009 marks the onset of the driver CPC, requiring a statutory period of additional training before 2014. But employers will be forgiven for delaying that requirement until things get rather better.
The overall trick for 2009 will be to keep the operation on a reasonably even keel, able to respond quickly and positively when opportunities do present themselves, or when the downturn becomes an upturn.
It was against this difficult background that in December the Government launched its new freight policy document Delivering a sustainable transport system: the logistics perspective and at last got real about the importance of the ‘f’ word – freight.
Secretary of State for Transport Geoff Hoon set the right tone when he said that “In the current economic climate it is more important than ever to focus on the needs of freight and its customers.” We can all agree with that.
The good news is that the document provides a comprehensive and accurate commentary on the current operation and prospects for the movement of UK freight.
While much of it states the blindingly obvious, it is still encouraging to see the Government acknowledging some universal truths. It has not always been the case. We have some positive statements on the vital role played by road freight, the need to improve the operation of the key routes and to reduce congestion on them, and recognition of the shape of future movement patterns once the economy has returned to more normal conditions.
The policy declares that the Government looks forward to ‘engaging with industry’ in working towards its five key challenges – supporting economic competitiveness; reducing emissions; improving safety; promoting equal opportunity; and improving the quality of life. Nothing to argue with there.
The more cynical of us might suggest that actions speak louder than words and that the chance of some fundamental investment in transport infrastructure at a time of economic crisis is pie in the sky. For years the industry has been telling the Government that investment in road building made sense in order to mitigate the wasteful costs of congestion. Now that this document seems to agree with that principle it is ironic that the public purse has been emptied in order to bale out the bankers. On the other hand major infrastructure projects constitute job creation – part of the Prime Minister’s plans to save the economy? We shall see.
But not everything costs money and there are some regulatory adjustments that could be brought forward at low or no cost to benefit our hard pressed industry – for example, the document floats the prospects of longer vehicles, which would positively contribute to all of the five key challenges.
We are living in a very strange world at present. Let’s hope that the Government’s seemingly favourable views on freight transport and its needs do not evaporate in the process of fighting the crunch. More articles from Handling & Storage Solutions: | 
